2009: The Year of African Democracy?

During the independence movement in Africa people came together and performed incredible tasks, inspirational leaders arose and the African continent at last got its freedom from colonial rule. 

The unrest, infested corruption and wicked regimes, as well as the poverty, conflicts and wars that have followed independence are not to be seen as justification for colonial rule in Africa. Rather they are to be seen as natural effects of the enormous change that is happening throughout the country.

After living under colonial rule for so many years gaining independence was huge – words cannot make justice to the scale of it. However, despite aspirations of a developed and rich Africa the leaders that arose were standing on fragile foundations (damaged by years of misrule and colonization).

Furthermore most of these leaders gained influence while fighting their oppressors, their leaderships characterized by the ways of war and conflict. I have no doubt that many of them sought what they thought best for their countries, yet their struggle against colonialism restricted their perspectives and made all too many adopt iron-fist and dictatorship ruling. 

During recent years corruption and dictatorships cleverly disguised in democratic structures have been getting increased attention both by the international community and by the people themselves. Tired of their governments colonial blame game an increasing number of Africans (students as well as lawyers, and in some cases even policy makers) are looking at the continent’s problems through a relatively new perspective, they are criticizing their own governments for not taking responsibility.

These developments are incredibly important for Africa’s future and closely connected to the new leadership which is beginning to form throughout the continent. As the year of 2008 is coming to its end a new era is reaching Africa. The first implications of change have already been made visible to us and we can expect more throughout the year of 2009. 

Predictions for 2009:

It has been a long time coming, but finally the end of a generation is upon us. In countries throughout the continent, from Guinea to Zimbabwe, we are witnessing the end of the leaders of the independence. Similar to the era of independence this leadership change will provide Africa with incredible opportunities to move forward, restructure the failed systems and rid the African countries of their infested corruption.

However, as history has taught us this kind of change puts an enormous amount of pressure upon both government and people. Not only do the countries have to adapt to new leaders but they have to make sure these leaders do not follow the same path as their predecessors. This becomes all the easier if the wicked leader steps down (or, more likely, is forced to step down) rather than if he is let to die in office.

GUINEA

One example of this is Guinean President Lansana Conte’s death on 22 December. During his rule ( 1984-2008 ) the Guinean people were plunged deep into poverty and the so called democracy was anything but democratic. Having often relied on the military to stay in power it came as no surprise when junta leader Captain Moussa Dadis Camara announced he was taking over just moments after the president’s death. 

Military coups have a record of not being beneficial to a country (an obvious reason is the fact that the military was not meant to rule a country – or at least not a democratic one) and might in this case cause further havoc, destabilizing neighboring countries such as Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast. Having recently reached calm after years of civil wars and conflicts these countries will suffer greatly if unrest is provoked.

To make matters worse, many Guineans have welcomed the coup. After years of misrule the people are desperate for change and thus partly blind to the history of military coups (“this one will be different”).

According to the constitution an election should be held no later than 60 days after the president’s death. However, the constitution has been upheld by Capt Camara who has claimed that his goal is not to hold on to power but to pursue democracy, with elections being held in December 2010. To me this seems dubious. First of all he does not care much for the rule of law (hence the coup) and there is no indication that he will be true to his promise.

Second, Capt Camara plans to stay in power for two years, making it unlikely that he will give up power when the time comes (since he will have plenty of time to get used to it). To truly bring the power back to the people the government should not be ruled by the military longer than necessary, definitely no more than a few months. 

The developments in Guinea are being closely watched by African leaders as well as the international community. While the United Nations has moved rather slowly the African Union has suspended the country’s membership (“until the return of constitutional order”). Yet further actions need to be taken very soon as the first months of 2009 will be crucial for a future democracy in Guinea as well as for keeping its neighboring countries at peace.

ZIMBABWE

Zimbabwe is definitely the African country most desperate for new leadership. Independence leader Robert Mugabe has lost his senses, leaving his people to struggle with an unprecedented hyper-inflation, increasing food shortages and the continuing spread of cholera. The people’s suffering is enormous (the long list of human rights violations is unbelievable) and Mugabe’s desperate attempts to stay in power only reflects his ignorance of reality.

During the summer I commented on the failing power talks between the president and then-opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. Now it seems these talks have definitely broken down, which might actually be a good thing. There is no doubt that Mugabe is unfit to stay in power and perhaps President Tsvangirai would have made a good change for Zimbabwe. However, efforts to remove the current president will not succeed if they are acted out half-heartedly (as the power sharing would have been). Rather they will ruin any attempts at cracking the corrupt Mugabe regime and (if we are to look at Guinea) Mugabe’s death in office might well be the last step before the country truly falls down the edge of collapse.

Yet in the midst of all this suffering the year of 2009 offers the whisper of hope. With the many ascending crises in Zimbabwe the country is demanding more attention from African leaders who are joining the western countries in their condemnation of the wicked regime. Furthermore as the cholera epidemic is spreading across Zimbabwe’s borders, causing casualties in South Africa, it is creating tensions throughout the region and might turn out to be the last push African leaders need to fully act on the horrific acts of Mugabe. 

GHANA

Moving from Zimbabwe to the ongoing presidential election in Ghana, change is certainly happening. Seen as one of Africa’s most democratic countries, Ghana has a great opportunity to restore the continent’s faith in elections (and in democracy) after flawed polls and violence in both Kenya and Zimbabwe this year. For this purpose it is crucial that the election will be declared fair and free. Furthermore the recent discovery of oil (which is expected to generate revenue in 2010) demands that a competent leader is chosen (and not one who will tread on the road of corruption) if the people is to gain from its fruits.

The poll comes after the election failed to provide a winner with more than 50 % of the vote. At the time of my writing the results of the run-off presidential poll are still to be released, however, John Atta Mills of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) claims he has won. Meanwhile the chairman of the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) said there had been widespread intimidation of its election agents and results from these areas would be challenged. 

Both of these developments are worrying. As the run-off is extremely close tensions are high and any claim for victory before results are released is both dangerous and foolish. The echoes of Kenya’s post-election violence is still fresh in our minds and fears are growing that similar events might take place in Ghana if accusations of fraud follow the election.

Will 2009 be the year of African democracy?

It is evident that we are witnessing historic changes throughout the African continent and the year of 2009 will definitely serve as a year when more of these changes occur. However it is also likely that the upcoming year will be characterized by some of the effects (for good and for bad) of these changes.

The military coup in Guinea might continue, leading to unrest that hampers the development in the West African region; Robert Mugabe might stay in power, leading to large scale famine, an increasing spread of the cholera epidemic and further suffering to the Zimbabwean people; Ghana’s election might turn into a sequel of Kenya, leading to violence and unrest as well as increasing the havoc caused by the coup in Guinea.

From this perspective 2009 seems to become a year not of democracy but of conflicts and misery. However, I believe the new year will bring brighter developments to these countries.

The decision by the African Union to move quickly in the case of Guinea has shown an increased desire to prevent further conflicts in the region. If the UN and EU speed up their responses a bright future does not seem far away.

In the case of Zimbabwe it is most likely that we will see the end of the Mugabe regime during 2009 (either by his death or by forced resignation). The spread of cholera has provoked condemnation from nations across the African continent and the South African government will not stay quiet for long.

Lastly is the case of Ghana, with the outcome seemingly uncertain. Yet I still have faith that we will not see another Kenya, learning by ones mistakes (or friend’s mistake) comes to mind. Who is not to say that it would be a nice start of the new year if Ghana where to come through this election as a prosperous democracy?

Change is eternal and the only thing that we can always be certain of will happen. In the case of the African nations, however, we can expect to see great improvements as the countries make further steps towards prosperous democracies.

– Kajsa, Admin Twende Twende
admin.twende.twende@gmail.com

Aid and Africa: A win-win situation

Is poverty our problem?

Why should we act to help save the poor? Poverty is not our problem; it is theirs. What can the poor do to us, or for us? How can politicians ask the public to give more for Africa when the public is already feeling squeezed economically?

When discussing aid and Africa you will most certainly have people, usually cynics (all too many nowadays), ask these questions.

In my second post about aid and Africa I will give some reasons (out of many) why we should help save the poor. Like in my first post I will use the U.S. as an example.

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Many Americans do not see economic assistance (development aid) as having much to do with national security. Instead they have put their faith (a bit too much faith if you ask me..) in the military. To give you an example of how much they trust in their military the United States was spending thirty times more on military ($450 billion) than foreign assistance ($15 billion) in 2004. Four years later, with the ongoing and expanding war on terrorism, not only have these numbers sky-rocked (the Iraq war alone has cost the U.S. more than a trillion dollars!), but many civilians have been killed and the suffering is global.

Americans overestimate the amount of funding spent on aid by 2400 %

The decision to back military rather than other approaches to international relations is the result of several mistaken ideas. One of these is the belief that we are already doing all that we can do to help the poor. This idea is not only false but embarrassing! It is all too common (not only in America) that the public overestimates the amount of federal funds spent on foreign aid. A survey made a couple years ago reported that Americans, on average, believed that foreign aid accounts for 20 percent of the federal budget, some twenty-four times the actual figure(!!).   

Another ludicrous idea is the widespread view that the U.S. military can achieve security for Americans even in the absence of a stable world. This is the same mistake that led Americans to believe they would be greeted as liberators in Baghdad and that the capture and execution of Saddam Hussein would stop Iraqi violence. 

Thus, putting too much faith in the military is not only a risky business but a proven path for mistakes and economic disaster. Instead we should invest this money in economic development aid and we will gain plenty, I will give you an example.

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Too little support for economic development has caused many failed states in Africa

Many are the countries in Africa who suffer from economic failure: an economy stuck in a poverty trap, banking crisis, debt default, or hyperinflation. As if that was not bad enough these failures often lead to state failure as well, state failure being any of the following (according to the State Failure Task Force): revolutionary war, ethnic war, genocide, politicide, or adverse or disruptive regime change. Throughout history failed states have created problems not only for themselves, but also for the rest of the world. The failed states are breeding grounds for violence, terrorism, international criminality, mass migration, refugee movements, drug trafficking, and disease. In other words, by reducing the number of failing economies the developed world would not only help prevent gross human rights violations but save a lot of money on military assistance in these states.

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To answer the questions above: Poverty is indeed our problem, if we do not act to eradicate it it will most certainly continue to cause widespread suffering and put further pressure on the global community. The safety of global society, the value of our countries’ promises, the lives and rights of millions of women and children, and the meaning and moral worth of our civilization depends a great deal on the aid we give.

Furthermore, the 0.7 percent of GNP spent on foreign aid will not hurt that much after all. Jeffery Sachs (The End of Poverty) gives two great ideas for achieving this without “squeezing” the economy any further. The first one will transfer parts of the overgrown military budget to the agenda of global security through economic development. The second will call on the richest of the rich to do their part. Considering the top 400 highest-income Americans have a yearly income of $69 billion ($12 billion more than Nigeria’s, Botswana’s, Senegal’s and Uganda’s GDP’s combined or about 161 million people!) they can comfortably make such a contribution to what is, ultimately, a win-win situation.

This is our generations unique moment to secure global well being, we should be damn sure to make good use of this opportunity.

– Kajsa, Admin Twende Twende
admin.twende.twende@gmail.com

Zimbabwe: Talks Leading Where?

Will talks finally lead to Mugabe stepping down?

When the talks between Zimbabwe’s current “president” Robert Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai came to a halt not long after they had begun I must admit my hopes for a solution to Zimbabwe’s crisis were severely damaged.

Now the negotiations are to resume on Sunday and Mr Tsvangirai, unbelievably, has said he is “fairly satisfied” with power-sharing talks. This is surprising for many reasons, the most obvious being the opposition leader’s demand for Mr Mugabe to step down. A power-sharing deal would most likely lead to a prolonged Mugabe regime, even if it is in disguise, at least if he remains president. 

Mr Tsvangirai should know this better than anyone, especially since he was made the generous offer of being made third vice-president! (Some have guts… seriously!)

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Speaking of his meeting with Mr Mugabe, Morgan Tsvangirai of the MDC said:

I am sure that there was a common understanding that there is a need to soft land the crisis through a transitional process.

He [Robert Mugabe] is just as human as every one of us, that he has similar concerns, although, of course, I think he is ignorant, and/or chooses to be in a denial stage as far as violence is concerned

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I do believe the opposition leader was speaking carefully and made sure he sounded as positive as possible despite the unpleasant situation he must be in. Even though Mr Mugabe is “as human as everyone of us” he has, after 28 years of dictatorship, adapted the common habit of ignoring the consequences of his actions, blaming others for the crisis and has an almost childlike view of his own responsibility(click). This must result in quite frustrating talks!

However, as it seems like Mr Tsvangirai is positive, something must have been said during their negotiations. I can not be the only one who would like to know what?

– Kajsa, Adim Twende Twende
admin.twende.twende@gmail.com

Aid and Africa: Money Down the Drain?

 

Kofi Annan presented the famous We the Peoples Document in 2000

The suffering and hardships of people in the developing nations are not news to any of us. In 2000 the United Nations assembled the largest gathering of world leaders in history. These leaders convincingly expressed a global determination to end some of the most challenging and vexing problems inherited from the twentieth century. They conveyed the hope that extreme poverty, disease, and environmental degradation could be alleviated with the wealth, the new technologies, and the global awareness  with which we had entered the twenty-first century. Former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan presented the world with a remarkable document which reflected his strong conviction that the organization represents more than its 191-member governments; it represents the peoples of the world as individuals, who are endowed with rights and responsibilities that have a global reach. We the Peoples, as the document is called, laid out a discerning view of the challenges facing global society and became the basis for an important global statement, the Millennium Declaration. The Declaration surveys the issues of war and peace, health and disease, and wealth and poverty as well as commits the world to a set of undertakings and eight MDGs (Millennium Development Goals), to improve the human condition.

 

These goals (which are to be met by 2015) include:

1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
2. Achieve universal primary education
3. Promote gender equality and empower women
4. Reduce child mortality
5. Improve maternal health
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
7. Ensure environmental sustainability
8. Develop a global partnership for development

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Africa needs around $30 billion per year in aid to eradicate extreme poverty and achieve the first MDG. This is a large amount of money, where will it go? Right down the drain if the past is any guide. Sadly the education level in Africa is so low that even programs that work elsewhere will fail miserably in Africa. It is a corrupt continent, riddled with authoritarianism. Not only lacking in moral values, Africa does not even have the free market economy to achieve success. As a matter of fact, Africa’s morals are so low that it is no surprise AIDS has run out of control. The worst of all? Supposing our aid saved the children of Africa, what then? There would be a population explosion and a lot more hungry adults. We would have solved nothing!

Are we sending money down the drain?

I certainly hope you are shaking your head vigorously at this point. The paragraph you just read (inspired by Jeffrey Sachs similar composition in “The End of Poverty“) echoes rich-world “wisdom” about the African continent, as well as other poor regions. These allegations are incorrect but have been repeated publicly, and whispered in private, for so long that they have become accepted as truths by much of the developed community. This has not only crippled the aid effort but affected the global community, pulling it further down in prejudice and misconception. It is therefore crucial we bring these arguments to the surface and confront them. This first post will concern the subject whether we are sending our money down the drain or not.

 

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Let me tell you about Paul O’Neill, former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, who expressed this all too common frustration when he commented on the aid for Africa: 

We’ve spent trillions of dollars on these problems and we have damn near nothing to show for it.

Paul O'Neill confronting Bono

This comes from a man who want to fix the system so that U.S. aid could be justified, in other words: he is no foe of foreign aid. But O’Neill could not have been more wrong to believe that vast flows of aid to Africa have disappeared. How can he be surprised that there is so little to show for the aid to Africa when there in fact has been so little aid to Africa?

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You might think the aid sent to the continent is huge, indeed this is the popular perception. The truth, however, is quite contrary, the amount of aid per African per year is really very small, barely $30 per sub-Saharan African in 2002 (According to recent calculations the amount of aid needed to eradicate extreme poverty in Africa is between $60-$75 per sub-Saharan African). And this is from the entire world! Hang on, it does not stop there. Of the $30 almost $5 went to consultants from the donor countries, more than $3 was for food aid as well as other emergency aid, another $4 went to servicing Africa’s debts, and $5 was for debt relief operations. The rest, a meager amount of $12, went to Africa. Gosh.. I am amazed we are not seeing many traces of that aid on the ground! 

To take this a further step, and since O’Neill is indeed American, we will take a closer look at the U.S. aid alone. In the same year (2002) the United States contributed with $3 per sub-Saharan African. Not including the parts for U.S. consultants, food and other emergency aid, administrative costs, and debt relief, the African was left with the huge donation of 6 cents! 

One can argue then that we are indeed sending money down the drain, keep in mind though that the fault is ours and ours alone. If we want to see the impact of aid, we had better offer enough to produce results!

 

–Kajsa, Admin Twende Twende
admin.twende.twende@gmail.com

Kenya: Taking a closer look at the killings

The torched body lies in the dirt, at the side of the road. Maybe it is a man; upturned, with charred hands and legs turned into claws, the face melted away to reveal yellow buckteeth, it looks more like a rodent. The charcoal skull is hatched with blade marks, perhaps the cause of death.

This is The Economist’s description of the violent images on display at the “Kenya Burning” exhibition at Nairobi’s Go-Down arts centre. The centre is markedly trans-tribal and has turned some of the capital’s poorest youths into brilliant dancers as well as artistic creators and has up until May been displaying an out-of-the-ordinary exhibition reminding Kenyans of the horrific human rights’ violations taking place after the presidential election in December.

Judy Ogana and Joy Mboya, the show’s curators, decided to go forth with the exhibition despite debates whether it was too soon to remind Kenyans of the crisis, when at least 1 200 people were killed and more than 300 000 displaced. 

Arranged chronologically, from the calm lines of voters on the December 27th polling day through the fires and lynchings in the horrific weeks that followed, the harrowing images recall just how close Kenya came to anarchy. The curators say the stream of ordinary Kenyans visiting the show has created a new sense of nationhood, with “loads of tears and very heartfelt reflection”.

Interestingly enough not one Kenyan politician has visited the show. This has prompted calls by Kenyan artists for the images to be displayed in Parliament, even, say the feistiest, in the members’ dining-room. Which, I must say, I would love to see.

Ms Ogana’s and Ms Mboya’s courageous exhibition puts the spotlight on the need for not only global recognition of the human rights but a global understanding of the importance of the declaration, which clearly is yet to come.. 

– Kajsa, Admin Twende Twende
admin.twende.twende@gmail.com